Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences - iisbf@gelisim.edu.tr

Economics And Finance








 Cost to World Trade From Vaccine Hoarding


“Nobody is safe until everyone is safe”


Covid-19, caused by the novel SARS-CoV​-2 virus, emerged first in the Chinese province of Wuhan with a population of over 11 million in late December. Since its emergence, it has fastly spread to other nations in Asia, Europe, North America, and the rest of the world. As of June 3, 2021, there are well over 171 million confirmed cases and over 3.6 million death worldwide according to Bloomberg’s coverage[1]. Social distancing measures, use of facial masks, widespread testing, and contact tracing would remain as best options in the battle against the Covid-19 until vaccinations are complete globally since vaccines are seen as the ultimate solution to a way out of the pandemic. But, how does the world act in terms of access to vaccines?
 
According to data by Duke University’s Global Health Innovation Centre[2], the total amount of Covid-19 vaccines purchased worldwide are 11.3 billion doses, as of May 28, 2021. The world’s high-income countries that account for 16% of the world’s population purchased 5.9 billion doses, accounting for 52 percent of the total dosses purchased. On the other hand, the world’s low-income countries managed to purchase 0.27 billion doses that accounts for 2 percent of the total[3]. For country-wise, this dramatic inequality is even more pronounced. According to Unicef data[4], Canada, with a population of just over 38 million, purchased enough to vaccinate its entire population six times while the UK possesses enough doses to cover its entire population four times[5]. In contrast, poor nations have population coverages as low as 2 to 3 percent as in the case of Nepal, Georgia, Uzbekistan, and so on. Rich has been hoarding much-needed doses while poor is just getting by. Is that a problem?
 
Rand Corporation’s study[6] revealed that the estimated loss to global GDP due to Covid-19 related restrictions in economic activities in contact intensive sectors such as travel, tourism, transport is 3.4 trillion dollars. International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) Research Foundation reported[7] that failing to achieve global vaccination would cost the global economy between 1.5 trillion dollars to 9.2 trillion dollars, most of which would be borne by developed economies. This happens since countries are linked to one another with not only roads and rails but also via complex international trade linkages. And given that the estimated cost of vaccinating those in poorer parts of the world is 25 billion dollars according to the Gates Foundation, it is in rich countries’ interest to share some of the surplus dosses with the poor.

R.A.Hakan Kurt

[2] Access to data is available at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations.
[3] If the doses held by COVAX is excluded, low-income countries has access to 3% of total doses while high-income countries access 66% of total doses. COVAX (COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access) is an initiative that aims to ensure fairness and equity in global vaccine distribution. It is built by joint efforts on the part of the World Health Organization (WHO), the Vaccine Alliance (GAVI) and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparednesss Innovations (CEPI).
[5] Population coverage is based on the assumption that a given individual will need two doses.