A presentation titled "Mapping of Structural Breaks: Migration, Femicide, and Socioeconomic Shocks in Urban Areas of Türkiye (2019–2024)," prepared by Assoc. Prof. Gülgün Çiğdem, Head of the Department of International Trade and Business, as one of the most notable studies in national and international scientific circles, was shared at the Migration and Economic Impacts Symposium.
This study examines monthly net migration, femicide, income inequality, and inflation in five of Türkiye's largest and most developed provinces—Istanbul, Izmir, Ankara, Antalya, and Adana—for the 2019–2024 period. The study's fundamental approach is to examine these four distinct phenomena not in isolation, but as social and spatial manifestations of crises.
Using the Zivot-Andrews unit root test with structural breaks, the study found that turning points, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic, the decision to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention, increased migration pressure, and the February 6, 2023 earthquakes, created statistical structural changes in both migration and femicide data in some provinces. However, the impact of these structural breaks was not uniform across provinces; in some provinces, the series tended towards stationarity, while in others, these effects were more persistent. This demonstrates the unequal impact of economic and social shocks at the geographical level.
By combining a feminist geography perspective with empirical econometric methods, the study highlights the importance of establishing local and gender-sensitive early warning systems that can predict the social consequences of macro-level crises. The analysis, which reveals how femicide and migration increases during crises, emphasizes the necessity of social justice-based, data-driven, and inclusive policy recommendations.
With this study, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Gülgün Çiğdem does not merely report statistical breaks; It also aims to shed light on the social and spatial dynamics behind these ruptures.
