Geopolitical Risks and Global Trade

Geopolitical risks refer to uncertainties arising from political, military, and strategic tensions among states, regions, and global actors. These risks are commonly driven by factors such as wars and armed conflicts, diplomatic crises, economic sanctions, border and sovereignty disputes, competition over energy and natural resources, terrorism, and global rivalry among major powers. In recent years, the United States’ more active use of military and economic instruments within the context of great power competition with China and Russia, as well as in regional crises involving countries such as Venezuela and Iran, has increased tensions in international relations. The Russia–Ukraine conflict has become one of the main arenas of rivalry between the West and Russia, transforming Ukraine into both a regional conflict zone and a focal point of global risk. The Israel–Palestine war threatens stability in the Middle East and generates global effects in areas such as regional security, energy supply, and migration, thereby increasing diplomatic and military involvement by major powers. At the same time, Syria represents another center of geopolitical tension as a complex arena where regional actors continue to compete for influence. As Europe and other actors seek to protect their own interests, multilateral diplomacy is becoming increasingly difficult.

The rise in geopolitical risks deepens uncertainty in the global trade and security environment. Wars, sanctions, and political crises disrupt trade routes, weaken supply chains, and increase transportation and production costs. In response, states prioritize national security and strategic independence, adopting more protectionist trade policies and relying more frequently on tools such as export controls, tariffs, and technology restrictions. As a result, the global trading system is moving away from an efficiency-oriented model of globalization toward a more regionalized and fragmented structure, while growing uncertainty slows international investment and increases economic vulnerabilities, particularly in developing countries.