15 September 2026
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ebru Gül YILMAZ Assesses the New Direction of Global Trade: Opportunities and Risks for Türkiye
This briefing note, prepared by Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ebru Gül YILMAZ, Director of the Center for Applied Research on Economic Policies (İPUAM) and Faculty Member of the Department of International Trade and Finance, examines the key findings of the Global Trade Update report published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on September 1, 2026, concerning the first half of 2026, and evaluates Türkiye's position within this broader picture. The report indicates that global trade recorded seemingly strong but structurally fragile growth in the first half of 2026.
The New Direction of Global Trade: The First Half of 2026 and Türkiye Based on UNCTAD Data
1. The Scale of Global Trade: The Difference Between the Figures and Reality
According to UNCTAD data, global trade expanded by approximately USD 2 trillion in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period of the previous year. Global merchandise trade increased by 12.5% to USD 13.7 trillion, while trade in services grew by 10.5%.
However, a significant portion of this growth stems not from an increase in trade volumes but from higher prices. Rising energy, transportation, and logistics costs—particularly disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and concerns over regional energy supplies—have increased global trade prices by an average of 3.4–5% over the past 12 months. This finding suggests that the apparent growth reflects, to a considerable extent, the rising cost of transportation and energy rather than an increase in overall welfare.
However, a significant portion of this growth stems not from an increase in trade volumes but from higher prices. Rising energy, transportation, and logistics costs—particularly disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and concerns over regional energy supplies—have increased global trade prices by an average of 3.4–5% over the past 12 months. This finding suggests that the apparent growth reflects, to a considerable extent, the rising cost of transportation and energy rather than an increase in overall welfare.
2. The New Center of Gravity of Trade: Digital and Technology-Intensive Products
One of the report's most notable findings is the shift in the center of gravity of global trade toward digital and technology-intensive products. On a quarterly basis, trade in critical minerals increased by 38%, semiconductors by 25%, batteries by 15%, ICT products by 14%, and electric vehicles by 11%. In contrast, trade in solar energy products declined by 7% and wind energy products by 8%, while trade in fossil fuels continued to expand due to price effects.
This picture indicates that global trade is being reshaped around artificial intelligence, chip, and battery technologies.
This picture indicates that global trade is being reshaped around artificial intelligence, chip, and battery technologies.
3. Global Imbalances and the Regional Outlook
While China's trade surplus continues to expand, the United States' trade deficit continues to narrow. The European Union's external trade balance shifted from a surplus to a deficit, while the United Kingdom's deficit widened. Regionally, the highest growth was recorded in East Asia, whereas other subregions of Asia registered negative quarterly growth.
In addition, the "friendshoring" trend, which gained momentum at the beginning of 2025 and refers to trade among politically aligned countries, stalled during the quarter, while "nearshoring," referring to trade among geographically proximate countries, regained momentum.
In addition, the "friendshoring" trend, which gained momentum at the beginning of 2025 and refers to trade among politically aligned countries, stalled during the quarter, while "nearshoring," referring to trade among geographically proximate countries, regained momentum.
4. Assessment from Türkiye's Perspective
Türkiye's exports increased by 3.6% in the first half of 2026 and by 3.4% during the January–July period, reaching USD 161.6 billion. In July, exports reached a record monthly level of USD 25.6 billion. However, while global trade expanded by 12.5%, Türkiye failed to match this pace: the country's share of global trade has fallen below 1% according to the latest available data. Meanwhile, the share of high-technology products in manufacturing exports stands at only 3.5%.
This situation indicates that although Türkiye has achieved quantitative gains in exports, it remains relatively behind in the high-value-added and technology-intensive areas toward which global trade is shifting. On the other hand, the renewed strengthening of the "nearshoring" trend presents a potential opportunity for Türkiye given its geographical position. However, taking advantage of this opportunity depends on keeping producer costs at levels that remain competitive with global rivals.
This situation indicates that although Türkiye has achieved quantitative gains in exports, it remains relatively behind in the high-value-added and technology-intensive areas toward which global trade is shifting. On the other hand, the renewed strengthening of the "nearshoring" trend presents a potential opportunity for Türkiye given its geographical position. However, taking advantage of this opportunity depends on keeping producer costs at levels that remain competitive with global rivals.
5. Policy Implications
- Increasing Türkiye's share in global trade appears to require policies that prioritize industrial production, investment, and exports while keeping producer costs at competitive levels.
- Increasing the share of technology-intensive products in exports requires strengthening research and development and innovation capacity.
- The window of opportunity created by the nearshoring trend cannot be transformed into a geographical advantage unless price competitiveness is ensured.